What Georgia Polls Show About Harris vs Trump Amid Record Early Voting

Early voting has begun in the key battleground state of Georgia, where polls show the race within the margin of error.
About 328,000 voters have already cast their ballots in the Peach State, according to Gabriel Sterling, the chief operating officer for Georgia’s secretary of state. That figure is more than double the previous record of 136,000, which was set in 2020—when Joe Biden became the first Democrat to carry the state since 1992.
Given that Democrats, more so than Republicans, typically vote earlier and by mail, early voting could see the Democratic Party make gains in the state. However, polls continue to show Donald Trump marginally ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll tracker 538 shows Trump leading Harris by 1 point, and pollster Nate Silver’s tracker puts the former president ahead by 0.9 points.
Individual polls have mostly given Trump a lead of between 1 and 6 points, with most polls putting his lead within the margin of error. For example, a poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage between October 14 and 15 showed Trump 2 points ahead among 800 likely voters—a lead within the poll’s 3.7-point margin of error.
Another poll, conducted by RMG Research between October 7 and 10, showed the former president ahead by 3 points among 731 likely voters. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
However, some polls have given Trump larger leads outside the margin of error. A Fabrizio, Lee and Associates poll from October sponsored by the Trump campaign put the former president 5 points ahead—a lead outside the survey’s 3.5-point margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted between September 25 and 29 among 942 likely voters also showed Trump 5 points ahead in a head-to-head matchup and 6 points ahead when third parties were included. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points and was conducted while Hurricane Helene was active.
Some polls, including a survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group between October 7 and 8 and a survey conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies between September 27 and October 2, have shown the race as tied. Altogether, eight polls conducted since the beginning of September have shown the race as tied. A handful of polls have put Harris ahead by between 1 and 3 points—all within the margin of error. The vice president has led eight polls since the beginning of September.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
The small margins in the polls demonstrate the closeness of the race in Georgia, which Biden won by 12,000 votes in 2020. With 16 electoral votes at stake, the state remains crucial for either candidate to win the election. The last time a presidential candidate won the White House without the Peach State was in 2012, when Mitt Romney carried Georgia but lost the presidency to Barack Obama.
Both 538’s and Nate Silver’s forecasts show Trump winning the state.
Polling conducted by Harvard University, HarrisX and the Harris Poll between October 11 and 13 found that Trump had a narrow lead among early voters in the battleground states, with 48 percent of the vote to Harris’ 47 percent.
The poll surveyed 3,145 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. It did not specify how many early voters were surveyed or the margin by which Trump was ahead in each swing state.
The survey also found that Harris led among early voters nationwide, 51 percent to Trump’s 43 percent.
About 70 percent of the more than 150 million votes cast in 2020 were cast before Election Day.
Georgia residents have two and a half weeks—from October 15 to November 1—to vote early in person, including multiple Saturdays. Some counties also offer Sunday voting.